Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0475
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 19 2025 04:03:57

ACUS11 KWNS 190402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190401=20
MOZ000-190530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Areas affected...south-central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143...

Valid 190401Z - 190530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest severe wind threat over the next few hours
will be across southern Missouri where a bowing line of storms has
developed.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across southern Missouri has
recently started bowing out east of Springfield, MO. Where this
bowing segment is more favorably oriented to the deep-layer flow and
along/ahead of the surface front, a greater damaging wind threat
will exist. The intensity/longevity of this threat remains
questionable as MUCAPE is lower across southeast Missouri
(~1000-1200 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis). However, the low-level jet
is intensifying (as sampled by the LZK and PAH VWP) and may be
sufficient to maintain a severe wind threat for a few more hours
into portions of southeast Missouri.

...Bentley.. 04/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9ij2mQHdIRtbQlemjmQ_is19tabm_LvAA5HKdxtIM4QEkpYBLSiPWvQ-nkUaLTJ5CHmSLtTeR=
Xniwm2-ziwb4amKGFM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36909328 37079331 37299299 37569286 37759180 37779033
            37499019 37059102 36859233 36859298 36909328=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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