Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0472
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 19 2025 01:04:42

ACUS11 KWNS 190104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190104=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-190230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Areas affected...Much of Oklahoma and parts of Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 190104Z - 190230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop this
evening with some surface based storm threat possible later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...An expansive cirrus shield has limited surface based
instability this afternoon/evening across much of the warm sector
which has limited the diurnal threat. However, north of this front,
some elevated convection has started to develop from the eastern
Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. This convection is
currently quite weak which is not surprising given the weak
instability and the capped environment farther southeast (00Z OUN
RAOB) where better instability does exist. Continued mid-level
cooling and 850mb moistening (associated with the strengthening
low-level jet) will lead to an increasingly favorable environment
for elevated convection this evening. Strong shear will support
supercells with a a primary hazard of large hail.=20

Later tonight, initially elevated convection across parts of
northwest Texas may eventually move into a continually moistening
boundary layer across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. These
storms may pose a greater threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado in addition to the large hail threat.

...Bentley/Guyer.. 04/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9T4COl-ErrtDJt_6Ddm9uHxlXF7Y4ucHw8Gty7S-_BErkJuzoJ3L_ojFaoE83jVznvu3oq2Fj=
5-Hx3u5DLHoa9mWq-4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33160000 33720021 35110042 35869993 36559822 36979545
            35979502 34759561 33379741 33159926 33160000=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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