Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0463
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 18 2025 01:07:03

ACUS11 KWNS 180107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180106=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Iowa into south-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140...

Valid 180106Z - 180230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140
continues.

SUMMARY...A few stronger elevated storms may produce marginally
severe hail.

DISCUSSION...On the eastern edge of a plume of steep mid-level lapse
rates, convection has formed behind the cold front due to weak warm
advection over the boundary. 40-50 kts of effective shear will
promote some risk of large hail with these storms. However, limited
elevated buoyancy will limit the overall threat.

Though parts of north-central Iowa are still ahead of the cold
front, surface cooling has already contributed to an increase in
MLCIN. The potential for development along/ahead of the front would
appear to be low. If storms do develop, a similar hail and isolated
wind damage threat would exist prior to the front undercutting
convection.

...Wendt.. 04/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7NrSA0dbH220ZFfyVohZV07M_E_CqzXF2MfbplUi0DPgltbAVzXOVGt1wBSTZLXfoMgIagBUB=
Gi5aGIZuVw9BjSMbcc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42269651 42239689 42429702 43609613 44069510 44229467
            44249410 44239352 44079339 43379446 42549583 42339629
            42269651=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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