Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 17 2025 17:32:06 ACUS02 KWNS 171731 SWODY2 SPC AC 171730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ....Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ....Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ....Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ...Jewell.. 04/17/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .