Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 16 2025 19:17:18 ACUS03 KWNS 161917 SWODY3 SPC AC 161916 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ....Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ....Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ...Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .