Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 16 2025 17:23:20 ACUS02 KWNS 161723 SWODY2 SPC AC 161721 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ....Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ....Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ...Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .