Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 15 2025 16:16:03

ACUS01 KWNS 151615
SWODY1
SPC AC 151614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of
the Northeast.

....Northeast...
Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the
eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot
eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the
left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered,
low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon.
Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal
heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to
steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level
winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective
wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any
small clusters/lines that can evolve.

....Four Corners into southern Colorado...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture
atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V
profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be
entirely ruled out.

...Weinman.. 04/15/2025

$$

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