Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0453
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 15 2025 16:09:49

ACUS11 KWNS 151608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151608=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-151915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0453
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Areas affected...parts of nrn PA...srn NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151608Z - 151915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Showers and embedded thunderstorms accompanied by gusty
winds occasionally approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits
are possible into the 2-4 PM EDT time frame, particularly in a
corridor across north central Pennsylvania toward the Catskills and
Poconos.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing within a
narrow corridor across the upper Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes
region.  This is generally focused beneath the leading of stronger
mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling associated with large-scale
troughing overspreading the region.  Thermodynamic profiles have
become increasingly conducive to the initiation of scattered
low-topped thunderstorm activity, and this probably will continue
this afternoon with further boundary-layer warming and mixing with
insolation.=20=20

The last Rapid Refresh suggests that the corridor of stronger
mid-level cooling and weak boundary-layer destabilization will
gradually shift east-northeastward across northern Pennsylvania and
southern New York State through 18-20Z.  This may include CAPE
increasing only to the order of a couple hundred J/kg for a
seasonably cool boundary layer.  However, steepening low-level lapse
rates, with profiles characterized by modest temperature/dew point
spreads, will contribute to sub-cloud evaporative cooling and
melting, and aid downward transfer of momentum associated with
strengthening westerly flow (on the order of 30-40 kt) in the
850-700 mb layer.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 04/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-kH5JYNISr9MRmvxX6hMJcP6jLJMIaONtJy7kjoB_crcS4bPWHUAbCn9tHxJRolLEnjKghfqG=
0tgSkT5v57glX6LCmY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   42837591 43187450 42547412 42027412 40927731 41097943
            42207838 42837591=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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