Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 15 2025 05:39:29

ACUS02 KWNS 150539
SWODY2
SPC AC 150537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central
Great Plains.

....Synopsis...
A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from
the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A
southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough will drift towards
the southern CA coast. A pair of lee cyclones will develop near the
Black Hills and the CO/KS border area by Wednesday evening.

....Central Great Plains...
Just-in-time modified moisture return from south TX is anticipated
by early evening, yielding potential for isolated high-based
thunderstorm development near the southwest KS/far northwest OK
border area. This portion of the dryline, to the east-southeast of
the aforementioned cyclone, will have the best chance of sustaining
deep convection with overlap of the low-level thermal ridge/weak
buoyancy. Substantial veering of the wind profile with height could
support a high-based supercell or two with severe hail/wind.

The 00Z HRW-FV3 is a distinct outlier in indicating potential for a
discrete supercell deeper into the evening across south-central KS,
that impinges on greater low-level moisture amid enlarged low-level
hodograph curvature. Bulk of guidance otherwise suggests  a
substantial increase in MLCIN after sunset as the low-level jet
intensifies from west TX into KS, with convection probably
struggling given the sub-optimal moisture relative to the stout EML.

Elevated convection should form later Wednesday night into early
morning Thursday, along the leading edge of the 700-mb warm front
and towards the exit region of the low-level jet. Although this
convection may remain rooted near 700 mb, favorable speed shear
through the cloud-bearing layer should offer a risk of isolated
severe hail overnight towards the Lower MO Valley.

...Grams.. 04/15/2025

$$

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