Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 15 2025 13:00:30

ACUS01 KWNS 151300
SWODY1
SPC AC 151258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across eastern
Pennsylvania and vicinity.

....Northeast today...
A 110 kt 500-mb jet streak will pivot eastward from the OH Valley to
the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, around the southern
periphery of an occluding cyclone over southern QC.  An associated
surface cold front will likewise move eastward to the Atlantic coast
during the day.  In the post-frontal environment, steepening
low-level lapse rates and rapidly cooling midlevel temperatures will
support weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) of
sufficient depth for charge separation/isolated lightning flashes.
The steep low-level lapse rates and weak downdrafts will augment
30-40 kt flow in the mixed layer and contribute to surface gusts of
45-60 mph, with the potential for minor wind damage.

....Elsewhere...
Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon/evening
from southwest CO into northern NM and vicinity, within a modest
midlevel moisture plume where weak buoyancy will be possible with
afternoon heating.  Isolated thunderstorms may also occur over the
Sierra Nevada and east Texas.

...Thompson/Dean.. 04/15/2025

$$

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