Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0448
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 14 2025 18:18:53

ACUS11 KWNS 141818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141818=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Middle/Upper Ohio River Valley to
the Central Appalachians.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 141818Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging
wind gusts will spread eastward through the afternoon into the
evening. A watch will likely be issued within an hour or two for
parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorms are developing across southern IN
this afternoon, generally focused along/ahead of an eastward-moving
cold front. Ahead of this activity, continued diurnal heating amid
increasing boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints) will continue to erode inhibition and support additional
storm development. Steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by earlier
12Z soundings) atop the destabilizing boundary layer will yield
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, favoring a gradual increase in storm
intensity through the afternoon. As 60+ kt of midlevel flow (sampled
by upstream VWP data) overspreads the warm sector, very long/mostly
straight hodographs (60-70 kt of effective shear) will promote
splitting supercell structures, posing a risk of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Despite the expectation for an initially
semi-discrete mode, strong outflow amid the splitting storm
structures will favor gradual upscale growth into small lines and
clusters with eastward extent -- with an associated increasing
severe-wind risk. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the
area within an hour or two.

...Weinman/Mosier.. 04/14/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5h7rCJ3BSsKMjGrU_VA16y-AfAK0SqgM3I_aK43dri_TooSMQBf6aQGMp7VealiCJ0TX_CdNX=
V2lDczJ0QmPm_EgQzM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...
LMK...

LAT...LON   38248556 38918470 39248402 39638285 40028068 39977973
            39747915 39357876 38847859 38237864 37707920 37408001
            37228138 37038395 37138489 37338555 37818577 38248556=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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