Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 13 2025 00:47:51

ACUS01 KWNS 130047
SWODY1
SPC AC 130046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible this evening
from parts of southeastern Montana and northern Wyoming into the
Black Hills.

....Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Far Western South Dakota...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
northern Rockies, with two narrow streams of mid-level moisture
associated with a mid-level jet extending northeastward from the
Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. At the surface, a
1000 mb low is located in eastern Wyoming, with a cold front
extending from eastern Montana southwestward into eastern Idaho.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 40s F
from near the Wyoming-Montana state line extending northward across
parts of southeast Montana. In this vicinity, the RAP has a maximum
of weak instability with MLCAPE near 300 J/kg. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings this evening in far southeast Montana have 60 to
70 knots of 0-6 km shear, and steep low-level lapse rates exceeding
8 C/km. This environment may support marginally severe gusts
associated with cells that develop near the front as it moves
eastward. The threat may affect parts of far western South Dakota
later this evening.

...Broyles.. 04/13/2025

$$

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