Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Apr 11 2025 16:30:13 ACUS01 KWNS 111630 SWODY1 SPC AC 111628 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ....North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. ...Gleason/Leitman.. 04/11/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .