Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 11 2025 07:19:06

ACUS03 KWNS 110719
SWODY3
SPC AC 110718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

....Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough over the northern High Plains on Sunday morning
is expected to amplify as it moves east into the northern Upper
Midwest. This will maintain a deep surface cyclone from the central
Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has above-average
spread across latest runs and poor run-to-run continuity on
placement of the cyclone Sunday afternoon. This will be crucial to
identifying a mesoscale corridor of surface-based severe threat,
given initially poor quality boundary-layer moisture relative to a
pronounced EML. The slower guidance with more northern
destabilization suggests that low-end severe potential is plausible
across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. Otherwise, rounds of
elevated convection are anticipated through the period within a
broad but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime.
Buoyancy should remain weak and be a limiting factor for large hail.


....CO/KS...
Atop an intensifying surface ridge nosing down the High Plains, a
favorably diffluent upper-level flow regime will become prevalent by
late afternoon Sunday and persist into Sunday night. This should
support a corridor of convection from CO into KS, that becomes
increasingly elevated given the undercutting surface front. Guidance
has above-average spread on the latitudinal extent of where
convection should form, yielding a broad low-probability thunder
area in this forecast.

...Grams.. 04/11/2025

$$

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