Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 10 2025 17:09:10 ACUS02 KWNS 101708 SWODY2 SPC AC 101707 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ....Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ....Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ...Bentley.. 04/10/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .