Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 10 2025 12:48:31 ACUS01 KWNS 101248 SWODY1 SPC AC 101246 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. ....Synopsis... Broad upper troughing is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern CONUS today, as a series of embedded shortwave trough progress through its base. The lead wave in this series is currently moving through Lower/Middle OH Valley with a second wave farther back northwest across the Upper Midwest/Mid MO Valley. This second wave, which is accompanied by an 80 kt 500 mb jet streak, is expected to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South vicinity by this evening before continuing more eastward into southern Appalachians by early Friday. Surface pattern preceding this upper troughing will be somewhat disorganized and broad, with one weak low moving northeastward across the Upper OH Valley and another moving southeastward across the Mid MS Valley and KY/TN. A diffuse cold front is forecast to shift southeastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-South and eventually the Southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this front throughout the afternoon and evening. ....Mid-South/TN and OH Valleys into the Southeast... Area soundings reveal the steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater than 7 deg C per km) extend throughout much of the region, supported by a large area of cold mid-level temperatures (-18 to -24 deg C at 500 mb). These cold mid-level temperatures will help support airmass destabilization and modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold front, despite relatively modest low-level moisture. Forcing for ascent along the front, as well as more broad large-scale ascent, will interact with this destabilized airmass to support thunderstorm development across much of the region this afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized along the front, but initiation could also occur elsewhere across the region given the broad ascent and large destabilized area. Deep mixing is anticipated across the region, resulting in a thermodynamic profile that is somewhat unique for this part of the country. This profile will result in high-based thunderstorms capable of producing strong cold pools, particularly given that shear is quite strong and updraft organization is likely. Primary factor precluding greater severe potential is the limited low-level moisture and resulting modest buoyancy. That being said, the long hodographs suggest storms could be efficient at producing hail during their initially more discrete stage, with a trend towards cold pool amalgamation thereafter. Consequently, several bowing segments could develop, each with the potential to produce damaging gusts. ...Mosier/Kerr.. 04/10/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .