Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 09 2025 12:35:55 ACUS01 KWNS 091235 SWODY1 SPC AC 091234 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest as well as across portions of the Midwest and central Plains. Severe storms are not expected. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern Plains is forecast to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid MS Valley by early tomorrow. Some modest amplification of this shortwave is expected as a jet streak progresses through it base. An attendant surface low, currently over southeast NE, will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, reaching the Mid MS Valley tonight and the middle OH Valley by early tomorrow morning. An associated cold front will push southeastward through MO, KS and OK. Limited moisture return will keep buoyancy muted ahead of the front, keeping the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development along the front low. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening low/mid-levels will likely result in isolated elevated thunderstorms across IL during the early evening. Persistent warm-air advection along the front should allow for isolated thunderstorms to continue throughout the evening and overnight across central/southern IN, KY, and western/middle TN. An isolated instance or two of small hail is possible but any severe threat should be tempered by limited buoyancy. Farther west, a separate, lower amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to this shortwave will spread into the northern and central Plains near peak heating. Modest airmass destabilization is anticipated from the Black Hills across NE where deep mixing is likely, as well as farther north from eastern MT/western ND into MN where cold mid-level temperatures are expected. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within these corridors. Overall severe potential will be very low, but the high-based character of these storms could result in a strong downdraft or two. ...Mosier/Kerr.. 04/09/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .