Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 09 2025 08:39:25

ACUS48 KWNS 090839
SWOD48
SPC AC 090837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
From Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday, a robust midlevel trough
will advance eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes.
On Day 5/Sunday, a related broad/elongated surface low will move
eastward across the northern/central Plains, while a dryline
develops farther south over the southern Plains. Isolated strong
storms may be possible ahead of the surface low in the Upper MS
Valley, though poor boundary-layer moisture will tend to limit the
severe risk. Farther south along the dryline, a strong EML and
related capping should inhibit thunderstorm development, despite the
development of larger buoyancy here.

On Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the eastern half of
the CONUS, in tandem with the eastward-moving trough. Strong
midlevel flow and a weakly unstable air mass along the front may
support a marginal severe-storm risk from the OH Valley
southwestward to the Ozarks. However, considerable differences among
the medium-range guidance regarding the quality of boundary-layer
moisture ahead of the front casts uncertainty on the overall risk.

...Weinman.. 04/09/2025

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