Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 08 2025 12:33:33

ACUS01 KWNS 081232
SWODY1
SPC AC 081230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys today into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the
Black Hills.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A slow-moving cold front continues to push southward across central
FL. This front is expected to continue southward throughout the day,
progressing through South FL and offshore by this evening. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this
boundary, but poor lapse rates and weak shear should mitigate
overall storm strength.

A positively tilted shortwave trough is expected to track eastward
across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday
morning. A post-frontal airmass will exist across the peninsula
whenever this shortwave arrives, which will keep thunderstorm
chances over land very low.

Farther north and west, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while
moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest
into the northern High Plains. Some high-based convection is
possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast MT/northern
WY into the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent occurs over
regions that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak
buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few gusty
downdrafts are possible.

...Mosier/Kerr.. 04/08/2025

$$

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