Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 08 2025 08:10:23

FOUS30 KWBC 080810
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 08 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 09 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...

Deep southwest flow is occurring ahead of an advancing cold front=20
across the FL Peninsula this morning. Precipitable water values
have increased to 1.7-1.9" in association with the front, and SB=20
CAPE should maximize in the 2000-2500 J/kg range per the 00z HREF.
Low-level inflow (non-zero) and effective bulk shear (20-40 kts)=20
are more than sufficient for convective organization, across South
FL typically, and whether or not a localized flash flood risk=20
fully materializes depends upon whether or not an East Coast=20
seabreeze front can develop and focus convection with the well-
timed arrival of the front (near peak daytime heating), which=20
could anchor convection in the large urban area of South FL as it=20
is unlikely to progress inland within this synoptic pattern. In=20
this sort of atmosphere, hourly rain totals to 2.5" (as depicted by
CAMs) and overall totals to 5" are possible (as 00z HREF 40-km
neighborhood probabilities for 3" exceedance are as high as 30-60%
along the immediate Gold Coast. Considering the urban environment,
ingredients available, and mesoscale guidance signal, maintained
the inherited Marginal Risk for South FL.=20

Churchill/Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 09 2025 - 12Z Thu Apr 10 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 10 2025 - 12Z Fri Apr 11 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7MY9GcEvU4CTIX7IpYV6b59rlkSeS9F4Jd7hnHBEQsJZ=
6agMnhvQjMbGzmbr8OcjOJlrWhTnHDKTR0BnOHfb9mMUzfg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7MY9GcEvU4CTIX7IpYV6b59rlkSeS9F4Jd7hnHBEQsJZ=
6agMnhvQjMbGzmbr8OcjOJlrWhTnHDKTR0BnOHfbefJ2fSU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7MY9GcEvU4CTIX7IpYV6b59rlkSeS9F4Jd7hnHBEQsJZ=
6agMnhvQjMbGzmbr8OcjOJlrWhTnHDKTR0BnOHfbXHb16Is$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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