Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 08 2025 08:39:30

ACUS48 KWNS 080839
SWOD48
SPC AC 080837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

....DISCUSSION...
On Day 4/Friday, an amplified large-scale trough will move slowly
eastward across the Appalachians. Ahead of a related surface low in
the lee of the Appalachians, weakly modified boundary-layer moisture
will be in place across the coastal Mid-Atlantic states. While
instability will be marginal, owing to the limited moisture and poor
lapse rates, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow may support a
couple strong storms during the afternoon. The overall severe threat
appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time.

By Day 6/Sunday, a midlevel trough will advance eastward across the
northern/central Plains, while an elongated downstream surface
trough (with embedded surface lows) promotes partially modified Gulf
moisture return across the southern/central Plains and MS Valley.
Despite multiple surface boundaries across the Plains, current
indications are that a strong EML and related capping atop the
limited boundary-layer moisture should inhibit surface-based
thunderstorm potential.

Thereafter, medium-range guidance varies considerably regarding the
timing and evolution of the aforementioned midlevel trough and
associated warm sector -- limiting confidence in severe-storm
potential for Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday.

...Weinman.. 04/08/2025

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