Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0436
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 07 2025 18:40:20

ACUS11 KWNS 071840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071839=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-072015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Florida...southeast Georgia and southern
South Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...

Valid 071839Z - 072015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes and occasional wind damage will be
possible through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal band of convection continues to shift
eastward this afternoon on weak convective outflow, as the storms
spread into an environment where surface temperatures have warmed
into the low-mid 80s with 64-70 F dewpoints.  Wind profiles have
become more unidirectional/southwesterly with time, and forcing for
ascent is relatively modest well downstream from the positive-tilt
midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley.  The overall severe threat
appears to be transitioning more to occasional wind damage with
short bowing segments, though a couple of tornadoes will still be
possible.

...Thompson.. 04/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8IGNl0_zlR5b7mVRLvSkHZviZIFo41KOGOe6p81PS69KuO8oqGdklVjv8jKMMleQPHeJawaKW=
M2aPWBQ_RuINqx4DTo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29748334 29788378 29998394 30668319 31378271 32068195
            33198077 32798045 30668216 29748334=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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