Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0433
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 07 2025 12:41:17

ACUS11 KWNS 071241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071240=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-071445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Areas affected...parts of swrn through e cntrl GA...wrn and cntrl SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071240Z - 071445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least low probabilities for an additional tornado or
two and/or locally damaging surface gusts continues in scattered
thunderstorm activity overspread the region through 10-11 AM EDT.=20
It is still not clear that a severe weather watch is needed in the
near term, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
possibility.

DISCUSSION...Stronger boundary-layer instability, characterized by
CAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, still remains confined to a narrow
pre-frontal corridor across the western Florida Panhandle through
southwestern into southern portions of central GA.  However, some
cooling loft appears to be contributing to at least weak
destabilization north-northeastward toward the South Carolina
Piedmont.

The front, with a couple of weak waves along it, will continue a
slow eastward progression through mid to late morning, with the
Rapid Refresh indicating that a moderate south-southwesterly
low-level jet (in excess of 40 kt around 850 mb) will maintain
sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the
instability axis.

Cloud cover spreading downstream of the stronger ongoing convective
development probably will slow boundary-layer destabilization, and
it is not certain that there will be a substantive further increase
in thunderstorm intensities in the near term.  However, the MCV,
which apparently recently contributed to a tornado south-southwest
of the Greater Atlanta area, continues east-northeastward toward the
South Carolina Piedmont, and it not clear that the downstream
environment will not support an additional relatively short-lived
tornado or two.  Farther south, in the corridor of better
instability, focused along the low-level jet axis near/north and
east of the Albany into Macon vicinities, there may also be
continuing potential for short-lived intensification of
meso-vortices embedded with the ongoing narrow band of convection.

...Kerr/Mosier.. 04/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_yMqXq6FRsWEtmLcoXqKz4ZDuGkM3upV05plj2038_unGSsPcyiMUAJoPGmTaWO62ZmE4LpNR=
f8w8begZp2-S3i76QI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   32118371 32698381 33708337 34688218 33778104 30448443
            30508493 32118371=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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