Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 07 2025 08:59:16

ACUS48 KWNS 070859
SWOD48
SPC AC 070857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday...
A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly
east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day
4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture
will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower
MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across
parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel
westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However,
the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should
limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will
take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies
across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong
south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially
modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where
isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface
front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too
marginal for severe probabilities at this time.

....Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday...
A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread
the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the
Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer
moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across
the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML
should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance
varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and
related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm
potential.

...Weinman.. 04/07/2025

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