Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 06 2025 16:28:17

ACUS01 KWNS 061628
SWODY1
SPC AC 061626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the
Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible
northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern
Virginia.

....Southeast...
A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some
preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak
supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border
vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into
east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am
CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby
warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near
70F) and some additional heating will lead to further
destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur
northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to
differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm
front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will
lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but
sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support
organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and
line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist
through at least early/mid-evening.

....Southern Appalachians/Piedmont...
Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these
regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon,
convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear
across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce
isolated wind damage.

...Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025

$$

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