Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0423
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 06 2025 08:28:52

ACUS11 KWNS 060828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060827=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Areas affected...parts of sern MS into cntrl AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 129...131...

Valid 060827Z - 061030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 129, 131 continues.

SUMMARY...Circulations embedded within a line of pre-frontal storms,
and perhaps additional more discrete storms near or just ahead of
the line, will continue to pose a risk for brief tornadoes and/or
locally damaging wind gusts while slowly spreading across
southeastern Mississippi into central Alabama through 6-7 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Convective development has largely remain focused along
a slow moving to stalling outflow boundary, now near or south of a
line from Chattanooga TN through Huntsville AL and Columbus MS,
where it intersects outflow associated with a line of convection
extending southward toward a slowly advancing cold front near and
south-southwest of Jackson MS.  Near/east of this activity,
inhibition associated with large-scale ridging aloft continues to
suppress deep convective development; however one cell, emerging
from pre-frontal bands of weak convection across southeastern
Mississippi through the Alabama border vicinity, did recently
intensify to the west of Meridian (and probably produce a tornado)
prior to beginning to merge into the convective line.

The large-scale mid/upper ridging and positively-tilted upstream
troughing are very slowly progressing eastward, and it appears that
ongoing thunderstorm activity will do likewise.  Although the Rapid
Refresh suggests that a stronger southerly 850 mb jet core is in the
process of shifting into the southern Appalachians, flow on the
order of 40+ kt trails southwestward toward the Gulf coast.  This is
maintaining sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs near weak
pre-frontal surface troughing, where a narrow corridor of seasonably
moist boundary layer air (including surface dew points near 70)
appears to be supporting moderately large CAPE on the order of
1000-2000 J/kg.

...Kerr.. 04/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-CK-ds8xmpGsJUKN-b-bxlFp-3mqccGAkOMva6w8m68DtcQUHvOFnsr-zJg8wK0AVNUThfDAI=
maYe9Ou3up9rHdneR0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31069046 31648998 32698920 33088868 33338779 33668703
            33918634 33108633 32358731 31398882 30779003 31069046=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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