Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Apr 06 2025 05:47:35 ACUS01 KWNS 060547 SWODY1 SPC AC 060546 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSISSIPPI DELTA INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA/GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible on Sunday across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern Virginia. ....Synopsis... A positive-tilt trough will make modest eastward progress from the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley today. A mid-level jet will intensify from the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will be situated in Mississippi Delta arcing northeastward into the southern/central Appalachians and though the DelMarVa. The front will continue its southeastward progress through the period. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, particularly in the Southeast where dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F appear probable. ....Southeast... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing early Sunday morning in eastern Mississippi and perhaps parts of western Alabama. Though the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the boundary should maintain convective organization. Primarily linear convection with perhaps embedded supercells will be capable of wind damage and tornadoes. 850 mb winds are expected to translate east along/ahead of the convective line, maintaining a risk for tornadoes through the afternoon. It is possible a corridor of greater wind/tornado potential could develop, conditional on where surface heating can occur. Portions of southern/southeast Alabama into far west-central/southwest Georgia are areas that could remain relatively cloud free. Overall, the severe threat should be somewhat limited by poor mid-level lapse rates/warm air aloft as well as the potential for cloud cover. ....Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce wind damage. ...Wendt/Supinie.. 04/06/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .