Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0421
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 06 2025 04:46:27

ACUS11 KWNS 060446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060445=20
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-060615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Eastern LA...MS...northwest AL...middle/eastern TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 125...128...129...

Valid 060445Z - 060615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 125, 128, 129 continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging-wind and tornado threat will continue into the
overnight hours. Local watch extension and/or new watch issuance may
eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell clusters are currently ongoing
near the AL/TN border and into middle TN, while an increasingly
extensive QLCS across parts of MS/LA has shown some signs of
accelerating eastward late tonight.=20

The northern clusters may eventually reach parts of eastern TN
overnight. While buoyancy and low-level moisture weaken with
eastward extent, some severe threat may continue into the overnight
hours with these clusters, due to their current organized state, a
persistently strong low-level jet, and favorable deep-layer shear.
Some tornado threat could persist, especially with any supercells
that continue to track near a southwest-to-northeast oriented
outflow boundary.=20

Farther south, the damaging-wind and tornado threat may increase
with the organizing QLCS across MS and eastern LA. The 04Z JAN
sounding depicted notable midlevel cooling and a modest
strengthening of midlevel lapse rates, resulting in a somewhat more
favorable buoyancy profile compared to earlier in the evening. This
sounding and area VWPs also continue to show a favorable wind
profile for tornadic supercells, and any embedded cells and/or
line-embedded circulations may be capable of producing tornadoes
overnight, including potential for a strong tornado.=20

The severe threat will eventually spread east of ongoing watches.
Local watch extensions and/or new watch issuance may eventually be
needed during the early morning, especially if convection developing
ahead of the QLCS is able to mature from eastern MS into western AL.

...Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4miO9rTCZBLvywmkWVp5ygizc-skl5QC7HJnhXIUorvfs0ZRQj5nCi3GL4bgD-QGlsbOaxw8N=
vDcegXgUkALtS7R6JQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LCH...

LAT...LON   31529171 33588997 34918817 35648689 36268591 36558520
            36218469 35778434 35258507 34598625 33488781 32518864
            32018899 31388955 30759001 30689058 30739109 30829185
            31039198 31529171=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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