Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0419
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 06 2025 01:16:27

ACUS11 KWNS 060115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060115=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Northeast MS...northern AL...southern middle TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 124...125...

Valid 060115Z - 060245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 124, 125 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for all severe hazards will continue into late
evening. New watch issuance is likely by 9 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of intense supercells is ongoing across
extreme northeast MS this evening, with multiple spotter and
radar-confirmed tornadoes over the last 60-90 minutes. A trailing
storm cluster into north-central MS has also shown signs of
increasing organizations. The environment from
north-central/northeast MS into extreme northwest AL and extreme
southwest/southern middle TN remains favorable for tornadic
supercells, with favorably backed surface winds, rich boundary-layer
moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and increasing low-level
flow/shear (as noted on the KGWX VWP). This environment continues to
support a threat of strong tornadoes, as well as localized large to
very large hail and damaging winds. Any further upscale growth could
result in potential for larger-scale swaths of damaging winds as
storms move east-northeastward with time.=20

Downstream into a larger portion of northern AL and southern middle
TN, lower dewpoints (dropping to the lower 60s F) and weaker
buoyancy are noted in current observations and analyses. However,
the low-level jet will remain strong through the evening/night, and
some moisture recovery will be possible in advance of the ongoing
convection. This will support a continued threat of all severe
hazards well past the scheduled 9 PM CDT expiration time of WW 124.
As a result, new watch issuance is expected soon, which may extend
into downstream areas of north-central/northeast AL and
southern/eastern TN.

...Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6lK77OqV1Kw3pMF6OndWAuOUCrI1MRZngGtjV_Xl8sqk1rnrN7AwLMEp4wG683K7jYiAKeDEF=
gs4G8LMstQfHpzISPY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33868898 33858951 34078963 34358931 35278791 35468737
            35488609 35408541 35108544 34628619 34208760 33938872
            33868898=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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