Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Apr 06 2025 00:44:00 AWUS01 KWNH 060043 FFGMPD TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-060630- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0132 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 843 PM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South from Northern Louisiana through Southern Tennessee Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 060042Z - 060630Z SUMMARY...Strong convection producing rates to 2.5 inches per hour and training storms are likely to cause new flash flooding in many areas that have been spared much rain from previous days. Flash flooding likely with considerable flash flooding probable in areas that have not received much rain in previous days. DISCUSSION...Training storms moving NNE along a very slow moving cold front are drawing abundant Gulf moisture from an impressively robust 50 kt LLJ streaming parallel to the front. Individual cells associated with the training storms have a history of producing rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour. With the end of the diurnal period, the typical strengthening of the LLJ should support the strongest cells intensifying further through the evening as they are very efficiently using warm rain processes to result in these very high rainfall rates. CAMs guidance has been very slow with these storms further to the north, but the lack of eastward progress in this portion of the South has been in decent agreement in the CAMs, which supports the aforementioned strengthening of the storms as the LLJ reintensifies. Fortunately, all of the storms with the highest rainfall rates now have moved south and east of the areas that have been hit hardest by the heavy rains over the past 3 days. Thus, they are moving over areas now with significantly higher FFGs and soils that are far more capable of absorbing at least some of the heavy rainfall before it converts to runoff as compared with areas north and west in the stratiform rain. Northern and western areas of the MPD area that have moved to stratiform rain have been hard hit in recent days, and the stratiform rain, while much lower in overall rates, will still completely convert to additional runoff, and will contribute to continued flash flooding. Wegman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!69riJZDaqZsZK_E6UBGr6WJWmsnSF-M0MFzUmARbtzItppYrh5BkKCU2sPdfWWfrVEON= Vc64N_XMFDYfHrcfTKPtql4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36058677 35878615 35568538 35108553 33898660=20 32828815 32278975 32209091 31849229 31749325=20 31959365 33179259 33929149 35698928=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .