Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 05 2025 23:41:25

AWUS01 KWNH 052341
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-060530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0131
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
741 PM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians and Mid-to-Upper Ohio
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052340Z - 060530Z

SUMMARY...Storms racing eastward at the nose of a robust low level
jet will likely cause additional flash flooding due to
rainfall rates up to 1.5 inches per hour occurring over areas hard
hit by recent heavy rainfall. Flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION... The leading edge of a robust low level jet will
continue to feed weakening storms as they race eastward towards
the southern Appalachians and portions of the mid-to-upper Ohio
Valley. While the storms with the heaviest rainfall rates will
remain at the leading/eastern edge of the precipitation shield,
they will be able to overcome low FFGs from heavy rainfall this
past Wednesday and Thursday to further aggravate ongoing river and
stream flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are broadly
expected, which in turn will cause additional flash flooding,
especially in low-lying, urban, and small creeks and streams.

Rates with the leading line of storms are generally up to 1.5
inches per hour. Given areal hourly FFGs between 3/4 and 1 inch
per hour in much of eastern Kentucky, West Virginia and far
southern Ohio, the leading line should induce additional flash
flooding as they move through. The plume of rainfall behind the
storms will persist for a few hours following the initial line of
storms which will further aggravate flooding as the newly risen
streams and creeks likely overflow their banks.

The storms are encountering an environment that is increasingly
hostile to them, so they should continue weakening as they press
eastward into eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. The weakening of
the LLJ to 15-25 kt as well as MUCAPE values only up to 1,000 J/kg
should support the continued weakening of the storms. However,
much more potent moisture and instability further southwest but
upwind along the line should allow the moderate rainfall (with
rates generally below an inch per hour) to persist well into the
evening hours.

Wegman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8UKUIH8WltSq-jzU__W6rUpl3XX2lsuaIgdVx04bSYLx5gZIRfR2y5BNvOZgBVnEQo3-=
thuonAf3Z-V3kUAC31jM_vs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39448169 39408134 38898066 38308049 37588058=20
            36688144 36058257 35668630 36018650 36478574=20
            36768530 37428447 38168426 38608446 38628445=20
            38868472 38868354 38938312 39068256 39238211=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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