Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0418
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 05 2025 23:18:32

ACUS11 KWNS 052318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052318=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Northern MS...northwest AL...southwest TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 124...125...

Valid 052318Z - 060045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 124, 125 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes, damaging wind, and isolated hail
will spread eastward through the evening.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster with embedded supercells has
evolved across north-central MS this evening, with another cluster
noted into southwest TN. The environment downstream of the southern
cluster remains favorable for tornadic supercells, with strong
buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg), favorable boundary-layer
moisture and deep-layer shear, and locally backed surface winds
supporting 0-1 km SRH above 200 m2/s2. Despite the complex storm
mode, the presence of embedded supercells within this environment
will continue to support a tornado threat, including strong-tornado
potential. One or more swaths of severe/damaging wind will also be
possible with these clusters, along with isolated hail.=20

Buoyancy is somewhat weaker into southern TN, but some threat for
all severe hazards may accompany the northernmost cluster as it
encounters a downstream outflow boundary.

...Dean.. 04/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5vw2Y2ejPvvqt5bxhEU63yTcPOf-qTp-F84rbyY7OW22PyukINwpCzYc6aFfDHlEjA05qSA_s=
9HQkyjf7CyN7ID9WPo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34598916 35388818 35618741 34718754 33728826 33328898
            33139002 33469007 34078963 34598916=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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