Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 05 2025 10:53:04 AWUS01 KWNH 051052 FFGMPD LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-051600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0126 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 650 AM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...Central to Northeast TX...Eastern OK...Western AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 051050Z - 051600Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of central to northeast TX and southeast OK will advance into west-central to southwest AR, favoring a continued likelihood of flash flooding, including significant and life-threatening impacts. DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an elongated complex of cold-topped convection advancing across areas of central to northeast TX and up across southern and eastern OK. Convection is also seen redeveloping ahead of this into areas of west-central AR. The convection is being strongly forced by the gradual ejection of stronger height falls across the southern Plains in association with a mid-level trough. A quasi-stationary front with multiple waves of low pressure riding northeast along it remains draped in a southwest to northeast fashion from central TX northeastward across central AR. As the upstream height falls and axis of DPVA continues to advance east, this boundary along with the pooling of moderate to strong instability should continue to favor well-organized clusters of convection with very heavy rainfall potential. MUCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg along the front, and there is a southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts continuing to favor strong moisture flux convergence parameters. The latest RAP analysis shows a stronger corridor of this currently across northeast TX up into southeast OK and areas of west-central AR where convection recently has grown upscale with cooling convective tops. The antecedent conditions are extremely sensitive over areas of far northeast TX and much of western AR where very heavy rainfall and locally high-impact/catastrophic flash flooding has already occurred over the last 6 to 12 hours. Sensitivities on the ground are also noted over eastern OK with a substantial lowering of FFG values compared to 24 hours. Additional rainfall amounts going through the mid to late-morning hours may reach 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts which is supported by recent HRRR solutions and the experimental WoFS as well. Some of the heaviest rainfall at least for the next couple of hours should tend to be over far eastern OK and into western AR where substantial Low-level forcing is currently in place. Expect numerous to widespread areas of flash flooding to continue this morning, with locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4l2yqdDHE367UPseM7cDidQNpbnCD2iRWQDCrJYjOl65D01yjUcogme9IvthDwbk1PfR= ykLmMMOtzDqwYJydjGhF_9Q$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36369375 35959288 35059257 33729311 32449450=20 31829568 31689673 32549738 33999678 35889516=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .