Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0407
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 05 2025 07:12:02

ACUS11 KWNS 050711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050711=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...northeast AR...wrn TN...adjacent swrn KY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 119...120...

Valid 050711Z - 050915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 119, 120 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for additional tornadoes and locally damaging wind
gusts may persist into the 4-5 AM CDT time frame.  A new WW may be
issued or Tornado Watch 119 locally extended.

DISCUSSION...A developing mesoscale convective vortex is now near
the Jonesboro AR vicinity and migrating northeastward around 40 kt,
with a narrow vigorous line of convection arcing southward toward
the Greater Memphis area.  To the south of stalling convective
outflow, near the lower/mid-tropospheric vorticity center
east-northeastward toward areas near/north of Hopkinsville and
Bowling Green, one notable supercell has evolved within the
convective line and may have recently produced a tornado to the
west-northwest of Memphis.

Along and south of the stalled outflow, there appears a narrowing
corridor of modest potential boundary-layer instability to main a
continuing risk for tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts
another several hours, in the presence of strong low-level and
deep-layer shear.

...Kerr.. 04/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9rPt1pteCMJZ9S9dtWOPojIk7VdyBXM4iFyLXx7tZsIP3O9RYtXquvi4NmdThfEcsJeFmY5x7=
Q21PhAiP7Aik4voaKA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35969029 36488900 36778690 35508870 35238963 35109030
            35589021 35969029=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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