Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0404
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 05 2025 04:16:55

ACUS11 KWNS 050416
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050416=20
TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-050615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Southwest/central/northeast AR and northeast
TX/northwest LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 119...

Valid 050416Z - 050615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 119 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado/damaging wind potential continues particularly
across central/northeast Arkansas including the Little Rock
vicinity. Tornado Watch 119 continues until 4am CDT/09z.

DISCUSSION...Several embedded supercells/small-scale bows continue
especially across central Arkansas including near the Little Rock
metro area as of 1110pm CDT, commonly favoring areas along/north of
shallow prior outflow emanating from the north. The potential for
tornadoes, along with damaging winds, continues particularly in a
southwest/northeast-oriented corridor across central to northeast
Arkansas. This is attributable to a moist low-level environment and
strong low-level shear/SRH, with upwards of 250-400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH
based on regional WSR-88D VWP data.

...Guyer.. 04/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!41vkqdvzEzlDOpEeY2Nc0M0J_R4MeBTE99ZBKWLSAcrCTU704FzAHeAVF5MbsPxSRcYQktPaJ=
2JpdTQ3968tTRFpe7g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32879449 33859364 34259306 35869151 36449048 36268996
            35738995 35079073 32749340 32879449=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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