Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0403
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 05 2025 03:45:52

ACUS11 KWNS 050344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050344=20
TXZ000-050545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...South-central/Central Texas including Edwards
Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 050344Z - 050545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms including supercells
capable of large hail, and possibly damaging winds, is expected to
increase through late evening into the early overnight. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor/infrared satellite imagery is implying the
arrival of increasing forcing for ascent into the Edwards Plateau
vicinity this evening, with a strong consensus of
global/convection-allowing models suggestive of vigorous storm
development over the next few hours, generally by midnight/1am CDT.
Along/north of the boundary across the region, steep mid-level lapse
rates and ample elevated buoyancy (2000-3500 J/kg MUCAPE), in the
presence of effective shear magnitudes of 50+ kt, will support
elevated supercells capable of large hail, potentially in excess of
2" diameter. Some damaging wind threat could also evolve as storm
aggregation and potential bow echo development occurs, even with
storms that are slightly elevated north of the surface boundary.

...Guyer/Hart.. 04/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7NqeI_wdD0Z-Sv6mdEpaaTlXtH-Ai5hay4zed-oEMBOTzA3gqNP_XyKO3A_prwLvsMSiCG5kM=
KLw-XYQ-x2QAYkxsoA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29920139 31240088 31689771 30349748 29039945 28940058
            29920139=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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