Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0401
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 05 2025 01:05:17

ACUS11 KWNS 050104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050104=20
TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-050230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Northeast TX/Northwest LA into
north-central/northeast AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...

Valid 050104Z - 050230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado potential will continue to focus across far
northeast Texas, far northwest Louisiana northeastward into
south-central to north-central/northeast Arkansas this evening.
Tornado Watch 113 continues until 9pm CDT/02z, but a replacement
(and east-northeastward expanding) Tornado Watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered intense storms including
embedded/semi-discrete supercells will continue to focus this
evening especially within a southwest/northeast-oriented corridor
across southwest/central into north-central/northeast Arkansas. The
complex/muddled convective mode will continue to be a factor, but
the moist environment and strengthening low-level shear will
continue to support tornado potential, possibly including a strong
tornado, aside from damaging winds/some hail.

The 00z observed sounding from Little Rock features a moisture-rich
boundary layer with a 70F surface dewpoint and 13.8 g/kg mean mixing
ratio. 0-1km SRH was around 330 m2/s2, and increase over the past
couple hours per prior WSR-88D VWP data, with a further increase
expected over the next hour or two especially from southwest/central
Arkansas northeastward into northeast Arkansas/far southeast
Missouri.

...Guyer.. 04/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4x61N73DbT8Kz4kBaGC1akzM3p8T-y7lovdWrCbTHKV62TvgmSjwhQkfFptSyz1IZz4lP39HE=
sDBuKzYM3KY_YsMtko$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33449270 32749433 34479353 36359162 35618966 33449270=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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