Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 04 2025 19:30:23

ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

....SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be likely on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Marginally
severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern
Appalachians, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level jet streak will shift east from the ArkLaTex to the
Appalachians during the day Sunday with some amplification of the
broader scale mid-level trough by the end of the period. A surface
front will also shift east through the period with a weak surface
low forecast to move along this boundary from MS/AL Sunday morning
to the Carolinas by Sunday night. A moist airmass will be in place
ahead of this front which should result in some severe weather
threat from southeast Mississippi to Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle.

....Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from eastern Tennessee to southeast Louisiana. Instability
should be relatively weak ahead of this line Sunday morning except
for where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints remain. This will initially
be from central Alabama southward and perhaps expanding into parts
of northern Georgia during the afternoon. Expansive cloudcover in a
moist/weak lapse rate environment should limit additional
destabilization. However, there should be sufficient instability for
maintaining ongoing convection, potentially with some embedded
supercells. Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be the
primary threat.

....Southern Appalachians/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing west of the Appalachians at the
beginning of the period. The combination of the terrain, and a drier
airmass along and east of the Appalachians will likely result in
this line of storms weakening on Sunday morning. Some moistening and
at least marginal heating through the cloud cover could result in
some weak destabilization east of the Appalachians. A few strong to
isolated severe storms will be possible from the Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic as a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region and
the low-level jet intensifies.

...Bentley.. 04/04/2025

$$

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