Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Apr 04 2025 15:14:04 AWUS01 KWNH 041513 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-042000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0119 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1112 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...Central to Northeast OK...Far Northwest AR...Southwest MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 041510Z - 042000Z SUMMARY...Increasingly concentrated areas of very heavy shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring over northeast OK, far northwest AR and into areas of southwest MO. Flash flooding is likely with locally considerable impacts over the Ozark Plateau going through mid-afternoon. DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite trends show an increasingly concentrated southwest to northeast axis of very heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of central to northeast OK, northwest AR, and into southwest MO. There are strong cell-training concerns setting up across this region as the convection becomes aligned with the deeper layer mean flow and also in close proximity to a well-defined 850/925 mb convergence axis/front. Additionally, there is a well-defined elevated instability gradient in place here with MUCAPE values of as much as 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Facilitating the overall heavy rainfall footprint continues to be the nose of a 30 to 40+ kt low-level jet which should further strengthen a bit over the next few hours which will yield stronger moisture transport into the region for convective sustenance and also enhanced rainfall rate potential. Rainfall rates of as much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour will be possible with the stronger storms, but with increasingly well-established cell-training concerns, there may be as much as 4 to 6 inches of rain that occurs by mid-afternoon. None of the current 12Z HREF guidance, nor the recent HRRR solutions, have a good handle of the ongoing activity. Based on the repeating/training signature of cooling convective cloud tops over eastern OK, it appears that an organized level of convection will certainly continue in the near-term. Flash flooding has already started locally, but a more regional and higher level of flash flooding impacts can generally expected to occur soon, and especially for areas of the Ozark Plateau. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hBlg23FMRW-uk3586EhmJn2OPHs3FRGHSkqR2KmkuCazBiDilTl66yG0G-Rj8chB_OZ= myMiqQuTGlx8PUH0aYSvFJI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37689214 37289195 36799275 35959445 35299551=20 34579645 34799679 35629628 36229565 36859477=20 37229404 37669286=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .