Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0387
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 04 2025 03:40:29

ACUS11 KWNS 040340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040339=20
TXZ000-040545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Portions of southwest and central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 040339Z - 040545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase by 06Z across portions of
southwest and central Texas. Large hail will be the primary concern,
though severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out.
A watch will likely be issued within the hour.

DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery loops and VWP data
depict a midlevel impulse advancing northeastward across northern
Mexico -- within the base of an amplified larger-scale trough over
the West. In response, 850-700-mb warm advection will continue
strengthening across southwest into central TX over the next few
hours. This is already supporting isolated thunderstorms along the
western edge of a steep midlevel lapse rate plume and related
buoyancy (see latest SAT ACARS soundings). As the large-scale ascent
continues spreading eastward, a rapid increase in thunderstorm
development is expected within the steeper lapse rates, where
2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE (higher farther south) and 70+ kt of effective
shear will favor organized thunderstorms including supercells. Most
of these storms will be developing north of the surface-based
instability and should remain elevated with a risk of large hail.
However, any storms that develop farther south along the boundary
may be near-surface-based, posing an additional risk of severe wind
gusts and a tornado -- given ample low-level shear/clockwise-curved
hodographs. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area
within the hour.

...Weinman/Hart.. 04/04/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_7o7BXbRzMXLxbE9Xsf20TCqmerM0Tr4HBB4lbvuNET2UdXieLaVCCty14heUNPIfXki_b3_4=
rkrIaMdfygAFx6pbPQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   29700203 30160213 31620180 32440144 32850099 33090040
            33149985 32969923 32449894 31849892 31089902 30469931
            29830001 29480067 29370121 29700203=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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