Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0384
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 03 2025 23:40:20

ACUS11 KWNS 032340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032339=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-040115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas. northwest Mississippi...and far
southwest Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...109...

Valid 032339Z - 040115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107, 109 continues.

SUMMARY...The primary risk appears to be large hail. While much less
likely, damaging winds and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely
ruled out on a very localized basis.

DISCUSSION...Several elevated supercell clusters are tracking
northeastward across portions of southern AR and northwest MS -- to
the north of a stationary boundary draped across northern MS into
far southern AR. The LZK/NQA VWPs continue to sample a very
elongated/straight hodograph, with around 60-70 kt of effective
shear north of the boundary. This, along with steep midlevel lapse
rates atop a cool/stable boundary layer (yielding 2500-3000 J/kg
MUCAPE), will continue to favor elevated supercell structures
capable of producing large hail (generally upwards of 2 inches in
diameter).=20

Given the elevated nature of these storms, and limited potential for
northward movement of the boundary and related warm sector, the
tornado and damaging-wind risks appears low. With that said, if
these storms can intercept any localized pockets of surface-based
instability north of the boundary, large low-level streamwise
vorticity would support a tornado risk.

...Weinman.. 04/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7nUmnXOfPG4n7hN_OCPMNOs9bMU5oRnvzRaxMOZzFgixXUQ0ctAittoeNDkhu0Zv6wVjLcG_u=
pwW6Y6NG7CMnXoIglY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34169246 34889111 35449017 35538974 35448937 35118910
            34738929 34109045 33449220 33529259 33849263 34169246=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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