Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 03 2025 23:25:55 AWUS01 KWNH 032325 FFGMPD WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0114 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 725 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...lower/middle MS Valley into OH Valley Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 032323Z - 040500Z SUMMARY...Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over the next 6 hours is expected to continue areas of flash flooding from the lower/middle MS Valley into the OH River Valley. Peak rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr (locally up to 2 in/hr possible) are likely at times which will overlap, at least partially, with areas that have ongoing flooding from heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 23Z showed scattered thunderstorms over TN/KY, mostly north of a stationary front analyzed from northwestern MS into Middle TN and eastern KY. A greater coverage of thunderstorms was noted back to the west over AR and southeastern MO, having originated back near the ArkLaTex around 19Z. It appears the clusters of storms over AR/MO were located ahead of a subtle low to mid-level shortwave, just nosing into southwestern AR at 21Z, best identified in LPW imagery in the 850-700 mb and 700-500 mb layers. The low to mid-level shortwave is likely to track northeastward within southwest flow, allowing thunderstorms to spread northeastward from AR/MO into the OH Valley overnight. Southerly 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt are forecast to overspread western/northern TN into KY as the shortwave feature moves east, maintaining an overrunning component of the stationary front/outflow boundary combination over TN/KY. Elements of training will be possible and sufficient elevated instability will exist to support rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr (locally up to 2 in/hr possible) within axes of training that develop. The result will be an additional 1 to 2 inches (perhaps as high as 3" in isolated spots) through 05Z, resulting in continued areas of flash flooding. It seems the bulk of the heavy rainfall threat over the next 6 hours will fall north of the axis of heaviest rainfall that fell over the past 24 hours, but some overlap along the northern edges (northwestern TN into western/central KY) will likely occur. These additional rains will exacerbate ongoing flooding that is occurring across numerous locations of the MS Valley into TN and KY. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-GtEasy6cbb83SbUu4XzvZQY7pkhTbBfcCwtm-XuQZgkv6-rsJ_V80CNjmokbsIXabHo= vGakHxy_ruTA3MR3yIHoEPc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... OHX...PAH...RLX...SGF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39558447 39288337 38518236 37998357 37348474=20 36158627 35048842 34839010 34969138 35239235=20 37009071 38108911 39198578=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .