Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0383
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 03 2025 23:08:06

ACUS11 KWNS 032307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032307=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-040000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

Valid 032307Z - 040000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

SUMMARY...Enhanced tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours across
portions of middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells is ongoing across portions of
middle Tennessee, and both of these cells are along a synoptic
stationary boundary draped generally east-northeast to
west-southwest across the area. These storms are likely
surface-based with air ahead of the boundary sufficiently unstable
(1000 J/kg MLCAPE per mesoanalysis) and with strong low-level shear
(20 kts of 0-1 km shear per regional VWPs). Additionally, the
southern of these storms has a history of producing tornadoes and
significant (2"+) hail. Thus, these storms have enhanced tornado
potential over the next 1-2 hours. Surface moisture decreases to the
east, and this may limit the eastward extent of the tornado risk
with these storms.

...Supinie.. 04/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!54-0P8nhtd9EEi190Gvw7NJQOsX1LDTYfTiGZvA5Fz7UAH23BJRuuhiQQtkGORK0OrhsFOyR5=
GTJmQvhe_5z4187cCI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35518559 35138635 34868732 34908758 35088772 35398779
            35778790 36008769 36308706 36468627 36318581 35988547
            35518559=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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