Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0381
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 03 2025 20:33:10

ACUS11 KWNS 032032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032031=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-032300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Portions of West Virginia and northern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032031Z - 032300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms moving into West Virginia may pose a threat of
severe weather this afternoon and evening.  Convective trends will
continue to be monitored, although a watch appears unlikely at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Despite midlevel height rises across the area,
low-level warm-air advection continues to support thunderstorm
development across eastern Kentucky.  The storms are expected to
continue moving eastward across West Virginia, though high clouds
and poorer boundary-layer moisture (per 18Z RNK sounding) have
limited destabilization.  With low-level flow (and attendant warm
advection) forecast to increase into the evening, there is a threat
for the convection to persist.  Given the sufficient low-level and
deep-layer shear across the area, these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and a tornado. Trends
will be monitored through the evening, but a watch appears to be
unlikely at this time.

...Jirak/Guyer.. 04/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-2FqSQ21010fKSA29ReugkvEK2h-jFFaDa5WbxXlgRuWbjQLEftup_zbUVY6Mgf9jR5CG8VFg=
wD1ZSSEHdNrAQ4WSYc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37968246 38258201 38258094 38437951 39007785 38357744
            37577755 37427861 37207996 37208091 37158158 37408235
            37968246=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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