Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0351
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 02 2025 13:31:59

ACUS11 KWNS 021331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021331=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-021530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Far northeast Indiana and northern/central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021331Z - 021530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Small to marginally severe hail will be possible with
elevated thunderstorms. The eastern/northern extent of the threat
remains uncertain. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection with a few embedded stronger cells
are being driven by strong low-level warm advection in parts of
eastern Indiana into central/northern Ohio. Morning observed
soundings from ILN and ILX suggest these storms are likely on the
periphery of the steeper mid-level lapse rate plume. Despite cooler
surface temperatures, adequate elevated buoyancy and strong shear
could support occasional storm intensification/organization. A few
of these storms have produced small to marginally severe hail. The
main question is whether storms will outpace the elevated buoyancy
and eventually weaken. Given the strengthening surface/850 mb low
today, there is at least some potential for storms to maintain some
intensity farther east. A watch is not currently anticipated.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4LRqe-jl6rNzv_apXpLUaNnw37_BatLapFEsCFIk6VJr_3veSmrcVntQ2MoZw1L19JwMLOGSO=
eGWxTiS6m1mriJQCn4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   41858408 41878114 41718066 41098065 40458120 40168195
            39848335 39838423 40158498 40798547 41268550 41688483
            41858408=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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