Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 02 2025 09:03:25 ACUS48 KWNS 020902 SWOD48 SPC AC 020900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ....DISCUSSION... The mid-level flow pattern will undergo significant amplification over the next several days as a large western US trough begins to move eastward. Very rich moisture will support widespread thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southeast and eastern US through the weekend. ....D4/Saturday Mid South... The upper low over northern Mexico will continue to amplify as it begins ejecting eastward across the lower and mid MS Valley. A strong 100+ kt jet will move east of the trough and overspread a relatively broad warm sector across the Sabine and MS Valleys into parts of TN/KY. Unseasonably rich moisture from several days of southerly flow will be in place ahead of a surface low and cold front. One or more rounds of severe storms, including supercells, appears likely from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS through the day. All hazards will be possible. Storms should eventually grow upscale into a line or cluster and spread eastward overnight into parts of AL, FL, and GA. The northern bound of the risk area across the TN Valley and into the OH valley appears somewhat conditional. Multiple preceding days of storms may limit the northern extent of the deeper moisture and buoyancy. However, some severe risk likely exists given the intensity of the low-level jet and abundance of moisture. ....Day 5... The severe threat is likely to carry over from Day 4 in the form of a squall line, as the upper wave gradually devolves into a broader positive-tilt trough. Strong mid-level flow and ascent will persist over a broadening warm sector across the Southeast. While lapse rates appear weak from several days of convection, some severe risk is possible. The intensity of the severe risk will be heavily dependent on the convective evolution from the prior day 4 which is very unclear at the moment. Will add a 15% area across parts of AL, FL, GA and SC where the best overlap of mid-level flow and robust moisture are expected to support potential for damaging gusts. A severe risk may also develop across parts of the Carolinas and mid Atlantic Day5/Sunday. As the upper wave lifts to the north, ascent will overspread returning surface moisture as far north as southern PA. It is unclear how much buoyancy will be present with the potential for widespread clouds. However, strong flow fields will be available to any convection that can develop. ....D6+... Offshore flow and high pressure will begin to dominate the extended period as mid-level ridging intensifies over the center of the country. Much cooler and stable conditions behind the advancing cold front appear likely to temporarily end broader potential for severe storms through early next week. ...Lyons.. 04/02/2025 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .