Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 02 2025 06:29:56 AWUS01 KWNH 020629 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-021200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0104 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 229 AM EDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northwest MO...Far Southeast NEB...Far Southwest IA... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 020630Z - 021200Z SUMMARY...A few more hours of training thunderstorms capable of 1.5-1.75"/hr rates and localized totals of 3"+ continuing flash flooding risk. However, veering flow will result in increasing forward cell motions limiting overall totals and flooding risk eastward into N MO. DISCUSSION...Surface and RAP analysis fields show maturing surface to 850mb low across south-central NEB continuing to pivot slowly with expanding warm sector across eastern KS, spreading into western MO. Pressure falls have been backing warm sector flow/LLJ proving solid moisture and unstable air advection toward the frontal zone. Isentropic ascent has been redeveloping thunderstorms along a WSW to ENE line from Salina to Manhattan toward St. Joseph. The prolonged isentropic ascent from low level moisture convergence from the warm sector has resulted in saturating the deep profile for rainfall rates to reach 1.75-2"/hr over the last few hours resulting in a streak of 2-4" totals and long swath of MRMS FLASH unit stream flows reaching 400 cfs/sqmi from central KS into NE KS. While the warm sector remains unstable with MLCAPEs of 2000 J/kg, the upper-level shortwave axis is swinging from weak positive to neutral transferring cyclogenesis further southwest along the cold front and resulting in increasing height-falls. As such, LLJ is starting to veer slightly as the initial surface wave matures/occludes over the next 2-3 hours reducing orthogonal upglide. As the cold front advances eastward, there will be increasing convective development southward with increased forward propagation, reducing duration of heavy rainfall and capability of saturating the deeper layer profile.=20 As a result, the best training will still occur across NE KS into far NW MO with rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr totals expected. Spots already receiving 1-2" may still reach 3"+ totals. FFG values decrease steadily east and north with 1.5"/1hr and 2-2.5"/3hrs are still in the realm of being exceeded in the shorter term though likely decreasing steadily further eastward into south-central IA/north-central MO. Strong up/downdrafts capable of a quick 1-1.5" sub-hourly total are still within a low possibility of inducing some flooding concerns especially near urban centers and traditionally prone flooding areas, but the progressive nature should limit it to those locations only through the morning.=20=20=20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8yLBRa_lL_djpBXbO78aU_pgHa3ksqlwXVn2DiKc9GU3_eZdlEgBAiTLgf6JKvfK1qdD= hneY2MgjuyVbw0aPzs8do1E$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40989315 40739264 40179248 39639269 39199314=20 38889380 38609485 38489601 38989700 39649673=20 40399590 40859437=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .