Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0341
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 02 2025 00:46:26

ACUS11 KWNS 020046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020045=20
TXZ000-020245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Areas affected...Portions of central and northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 020045Z - 020245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
with initial discrete storms in central/northwest Texas. It is
unclear if severe coverage will warrant a watch, though trends are
being monitored.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has developed ahead of the
dryline in central/northwest Texas -- where steep boundary-lapse
rates are intersecting the western edge of the warm/moist sector
(upper 50s/lower 60s F dewpoints). Weak large-scale forcing for
ascent and 40-50 kt of cross-boundary 0-6 km shear (per DYX VWP)
will support discrete supercellular structures, aided by around 2000
J/kg MLCAPE. Initial storms will mainly pose a risk of isolated
large hail and locally severe gusts. However, if these storms can
persist long enough and track eastward into the increasing low-level
shear/SRH, the tornado threat would also increase. The overall
coverage and evolution of storms remains unclear, though trends are
being monitored for a possible watch.

...Weinman/Mosier.. 04/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6U8H9d2BCXjvqt2q9s144gcRztuVAOuJRL9gO0gRqwnN2r3tw7sN3wgOF5L4fawpP3_Z1A4Ot=
z7rPLgaUr8h05AF6Vk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32369948 33039928 33319883 33379826 33309783 33079767
            32639772 32099822 31319944 31449993 31660001 32369948=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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