Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0336
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 01 2025 20:17:53

ACUS11 KWNS 012017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012017=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Areas affected...Western into central Oklahoma and western North
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 012017Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Cumulus activity is increasing on the dryline in western
Oklahoma. This area is being monitored for storm initiation.
Supercells capable of large/very-large hail, tornadoes (possibly
strong), and severe gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Moisture return continues in the southern Plains this
afternoon. Low 60s F dewpoints have reached the Red River/southern
Oklahoma. Mid 60s F dewpoints lag farther south in the DFW
Metroplex. Cumulus have become more numerous in southwest Oklahoma
and recent Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows a few towers
occasionally deepening. While this activity is currently developing
within upper 50s F dewpoints, greater moisture resides to the east.

Storm initiation timing is a bit uncertain, especially given the
filtered insolation through a cirrus canopy. However, most guidance
has shown initiation after 22-23Z. Storm coverage remains a
question. These uncertainties are primarily driven by the
late-arriving moisture return. Mid-level ascent will remain quite
modest until after dark. However, the wind profile strongly supports
discrete supercells with an attendant risk for large/very-large hail
and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible in this
environment and would become more likely if a mature storm moves
into increasing low-level moisture to the east. Low-level theta-e
advection should slow/offset the increase in nocturnal CIN.

Once there is more clarity on initiation timing and storm coverage,
a watch will be needed later this afternoon/early evening.

...Wendt/Smith.. 04/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-LnocSLZ7kLaJEhMdrroXSdkJu10EmgoxB4B7vZjHeBdYD8p7TeHNyCgFfEOJRhlzE24Of4CK=
GvKaEqyf6sHFqTUcio$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35289729 33809795 33509873 33569950 33669990 34099982
            34569970 35389946 36799922 36939853 36939788 36489750
            35289729=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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