Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0334
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 31 2025 23:28:46

ACUS11 KWNS 312328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312327=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-010100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...Portions of eastern North Carolina and far
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90...

Valid 312327Z - 010100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts (generally around 60 mph)
continues to increase across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
90.

DISCUSSION...Radar data from KRAX depicts recent intensification of
a north/south-oriented line segment tracking east-northeastward at
around 30 kt. The inflow for these storms is characterized by
middle/upper 70s temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints beneath modest
midlevel lapse rates (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). This, combined with
around 40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per RAX VWP data), should support a
continued risk of severe wind gusts (generally around 60 mph), given
the linear mode/established cold pool. Trends are also being
monitored for a possible downstream watch into southeastern
Virginia.

...Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Z2BF2qDu_znpCq8YshpTPJwKA-N5kaJZjGT9W0FVYnJ47Io87IwfqgrQUL0ozDHHzXOJBPfG=
ZqXYz2_yOq99HDTl_Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35577870 36317851 36877802 36977757 36917713 36697684
            35857714 35417769 35407835 35577870=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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